Skip to content

Sportökonomik und die WM

Passend zur WM eine interessante Kolummne auf

They think it’s all over: National identity, scoring in the last minute, and penalty shootouts

We also estimate a simple linear probability model and find that England, Germany, and the Netherlands are up to 4.5% more likely than Brazil to score in the last minute. Often this makes all the difference. If a team scores in the last minute it is up to 26% more likely to win and 12% to 14% less likely to lose the match. We find that the Netherlands have the highest probability of scoring a goal in the last five minutes while Germany has the highest probability of conceding a goal.